Thursday, August 7, 2008

Gene Munster: New iPods in Sept; No MacBook Touch, Yet.

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has a note out today predicting a special Apple event in September focusing on new iPod and MacBook models. He notes that “On average shares of AAPL have risen 4% from the week before to the week after this event and +47% from the week before to four months after.”

He says to expect new iPod models, specifically a bump in iPod shuffle capacity, but he thinks a redesign of either model is less likely. This might contradict Cliff Edwards’ “in the wild” sighting of a device that appeared to be a new iPod nano. Munster argues instead that it may be the iPod touch that gets redesigned. “We believe theiPod touch may be redesigned and may enter the $199 price point, in line with the iPhone.”

His other point: Buying in advance of Apple’s special September events has proven to be a pretty solid move. If you consider the history of the last three such events, the stock has gained an average of about 47% within four months of that event. The biggest move was in the wake of the 2005 special event, the one which marked the debut of the first iPod nano. Four months later, the stock was up nearly 60%.

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